NCAA Tournament March Madness

#231 Texas St

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Projection: need to automatically qualify

Texas State’s profile is defined by a string of routine home wins against inferior opponents like UT San Antonio, Texas Southern, Abilene Christian and Arkansas Little Rock while a pair of ugly road defeats at Bowling Green and Tulane and neutral-site losses to Seattle and Lehigh leave clear wounds on the résumé. The team has not produced a signature road or neutral victory to offset those blemishes, so committee eyes will be focused on how it performs away from campus. The Sun Belt slate still offers meaningful chances to alter perceptions: home games against Marshall and Old Dominion are must-wins to stabilize the résumé, but the real upward mobility would come from taking care of business on the road at places such as Troy, Southern Miss, Louisiana or James Madison. Put simply, the profile rests on comfortable home results and harmful losses away, and only a few high-visibility wins away from campus will change the conversation.

Date Opponent Ranking Outcome
11/3@Bowling Green112L83-48
11/8@Tulane173L79-71
11/12UT San Antonio260W80-69
11/15TX Southern313W77-67
11/18Abilene Chr237W63-49
11/21Ark Little Rock307W65-56
11/28(N)Seattle111L66-52
11/29(N)Lehigh297L78-74
12/3@Rice217L77-72
12/10Southern Univ20356%
12/17Arkansas St15146%
12/20South Alabama16749%
12/31@Troy14523%
1/3@ULM35573%
1/8@Southern Miss20434%
1/10@Arkansas St15125%
1/14Louisiana32679%
1/17Southern Miss20456%
1/22@Coastal Car24241%
1/24@James Madison17730%
1/28Marshall17050%
1/31Old Dominion22059%
2/4@Ga Southern22438%
2/11Troy14543%
2/14ULM35588%
2/19@South Alabama16728%
2/21@Louisiana32660%
2/27Appalachian St29673%