NCAA Tournament March Madness

#282 Texas St

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Projection: need to automatically qualify

Texas State’s resume shows real flashes — home wins over UT San Antonio and Marshall and a gritty road victory at ULM — but those bright spots are weighed down by some of the season’s worst moments, including lopsided losses at Bowling Green and at Arkansas State plus neutral-site setbacks to Seattle and Lehigh and tight road defeats at Rice, Coastal Carolina and James Madison that leave the profile fragile. The remaining slate, with home dates against Old Dominion and Western Michigan, a trip to Georgia Southern and conference tests that include Troy, a return game with ULM, a road trip to South Alabama, an away date at Louisiana and a finale against Appalachian State, gives clear chances to add resume-changing wins and to prove road toughness, yet until those opportunities are seized the mix of bad losses, inconsistent results away from home and limited signature victories explains why the team’s safest path is to secure the automatic berth.

Date Opponent Ranking Outcome
11/3@Bowling Green128L83-48
11/8@Tulane194L79-71
11/12UT San Antonio348W80-69
11/15TX Southern311W77-67
11/18Abilene Chr253W63-49
11/21Ark Little Rock291W65-56
11/28(N)Seattle131L66-52
11/29(N)Lehigh305L78-74
12/3@Rice237L77-72
12/10Southern Univ263W86-83
12/17Arkansas St159L89-70
12/20South Alabama206W67-65
12/31@Troy113L100-80
1/3@ULM360W84-79
1/8@Southern Miss250L80-70
1/10@Arkansas St159L83-82
1/14Louisiana331W59-54
1/17Southern Miss250W74-67
1/22@Coastal Car234L72-70
1/24@James Madison229L82-57
1/28Marshall177W72-68
1/31Old Dominion22549%
2/4@Ga Southern24531%
2/7W Michigan26658%
2/11Troy11325%
2/14ULM36086%
2/19@South Alabama20625%
2/21@Louisiana33152%
2/27Appalachian St21647%